高盛-经典估值模型

一般情景预测1、经营活动主营业务收入同比增长率主营业务成本 /主营业务收入主营业务税金及附加 /主营业务收入（营业税率）营业费用 /主营业务收入管理费用 /主营业务收入实际税率股利分配比例200424.39%74.20%200541.47%77.78%2006E37.02%75.74%2007E39.50%72.20%2008E9.30%68.84%0.04%7.68%4.56%33.84%10.48%0.06%7.31%4.21%31.63%27.41%0.05%7.49%4.39%32.73%18.95%0.05%7.49%4.39%32.73%18.95%0.05%7.49%4.39%32.73%18.95%2、营运资金货币资金 /主营业务收入应收帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)应收票据周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)存货周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)应付票据周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)应付帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)预付帐款增加 /主营业务成本待摊费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用预收帐款(负债)增加 /主营业务收入预提费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用200457.10%200522.26%2006E22.26%2007E22.26%2008E22.26%25.1541.5833.3633.3633.365.65175.321.42155.893.54165.613.54165.613.54165.6172.8691.6882.2782.2782.2729.331.56%0.00%4.01%-0.16%45.393.75%0.00%3.30%-0.02%37.362.65%0.00%3.65%-0.09%37.362.65%0.00%3.65%-0.09%37.362.65%0.00%3.65%-0.09%其他流动资产增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流动负债增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期资产增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期负债增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%坏帐准备 /应收帐款短期投资跌价准备存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)长期投资减值准备固定资产减值准备在建工程减值准备0.00%#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!1.34%0.00%0.00%#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%1.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.29%0.00%3、资本性投资a、假定固定资产采用直线法折旧b、现有固定资产和新建固定资产的折旧年限平均为残值率为5.00%c、各年的固定资产投资如下：年折旧率=20044,000.00127.92%200516,000.00年2006E12,500.002007E1,000.002008E1,000.004、债务和利息200420052006E2007E2008Ea、最低货币资金为主营业务收入的b、银行长期贷款利率为c、现金不足时增加短期贷款，利率为d、现金存款利率为预计银行长期贷款增加额（万元）22.26%6.00%5.50%1.35%420.001,830.001,500.000.000.002009E5.57%67.49%2010E6.61%67.06%0.05%7.49%4.39%32.73%18.95%0.05%7.49%4.39%32.73%18.95%2009E22.26%2010E22.26%33.3633.363.54165.613.54165.6182.2782.2737.362.65%0.00%3.65%-0.09%37.362.65%0.00%3.65%-0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.29%0.00%2009E1,000.002010E1,000.002009E2010E0.000.00